Hang on Jaspir! We're headin for the rhubarb... - Fly Fishing Forum
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Old 08-23-2011, 04:12 PM
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Exclamation Hang on Jasper!

We're headin' for the rhubarb...
'batten down the hatches and pray for a proper South Beach breeeech...

Last edited by Penguin; 08-23-2011 at 04:43 PM.
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Old 08-23-2011, 06:17 PM
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...and I told my tree guy back in May, "no pressure, take care of the trees when it works for you".
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Old 08-23-2011, 07:34 PM
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Coincidentally, there are some nice big tides from Sunday on, new moon in perigee Monday, as good conditions as you could wish for moving sand around. Anyone know which direction the wind will be coming from?
JC
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Old 08-23-2011, 09:11 PM
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a Tropical won't do it, it's probably gotta be a savage winter Nor'easter, wouldn't you say?
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Old 08-23-2011, 10:14 PM
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IMHO...

a NorthEaster will drive waves down the beach and drop sand when it hits the hollow bend area of the old SouthWay...
Significant Lunar tides and a strong SouthEast gale will drive the waves up and over the beach flooding the inside and the overflow will create rips which scour out a channel...
Forward track speed and storm duration will all be key hydrodynamic excavation factors... and the actual track will determine wind direction...
If any new channel is substantial enough to become self sustaining, the new breach will last as long as it remains flushed and active...
Over time, it too, will eventually fill in as sand migrates down from Eastham and Truro...
The only thing constant is CHANGE...

Irene may have the potential but the circular rotation of the vortex will have to be on target to move enough water to cut a proper new channel...
I look forward to Mondays' evidence of Nature's power...
p.s.
and there's always the possibility of a wash over and breach in the quite narrow area south of the old South Way...
That wouldn't help the cause for the former beloved and missed "in-side" [ah, the "J" buoy Daze] but would certainly spice up the soup a bit...
'veryinteresting... 'weshallsee!

Last edited by Penguin; 08-23-2011 at 10:43 PM.
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Old 08-24-2011, 09:52 AM
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Exclamation the "plot" thickens...

'New Moon Lunar Tides close to Irene's ETA...

http://www.boatma.com/tides/Aug/Hyan...ket-Sound.html




So...
Who's up for a RIP TRIP this Sunday!!!???

Last edited by Penguin; 08-24-2011 at 08:13 PM.
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Old 08-25-2011, 08:17 AM
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lol Penguin...

GO IRENE!!
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Old 08-25-2011, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Penguin
'New Moon Lunar Tides close to Irene's ETA...

http://www.boatma.com/tides/Aug/Hyan...ket-Sound.html




So...
Who's up for a RIP TRIP this Sunday!!!???
Now yer talkin' Kayaks at dawn

Well, the paddle down would be a bit of a work-out but we would be surfing back
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Old 08-25-2011, 06:20 PM
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Almost as interesting as potential breakthru down south will be the effects on the new cut and the cut at Lighthouse Beach. Investigation post storm will be interesting as will be the fishing.
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Old 08-25-2011, 06:48 PM
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All I know for sure is if we get the predicted 5 to 10 inches of rain...there will be stripers in my basement and I will save 2:20hrs driving to the Cape

I always appreciated South beach in it's prime..........I thought that it would last forever......I enjoyed every minute there...if I had to do it over again..I would enjoy every second!

May the second coming of SB prevail!
Ron
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Old 08-26-2011, 07:36 AM
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The southway land bridge would take the brunt of a southerly... can you imagine if....


(BTW...

https://www.facebook.com/usfwsnortheast

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Last edited by juro; 08-26-2011 at 08:00 AM.
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  #12  
Old 08-26-2011, 08:49 AM
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COULD BE OUR PERFECT STORM

The marine forecast for Sunday afternoon is predicting SE wind with seas averaging 21ft, biggest waves can be twice average.

Sounds like a wild ride in the yak..... till the crash at the bottom
JC
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  #13  
Old 08-26-2011, 10:06 AM
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Good luck to all home owners and boat owners.
My thoughts are that only a storm like this can make the break happen. Strong storm surge from the south could do it. When you push that much water up into a confined space it has to go somewhere and the lowest point is you know where. With counter clock rotation for wind your best bet is the eye of the storm move over the Falmouth area or just to the west of Falmouth. That should push the second biggest part of the surge in a north north east direction to the east of Falmouth and flood the entire south beach area all the way to the cape southern elbow, Chatham. Biggest part of surge should end up pushing into the cape armpit making a mess of places like Whareham. but second biggest part of surge will be defelected northward by Monomoy should defelect surge into the corner where the old cut was, nice 12 foot surge would do it I think.
If the eye hits east of cape arm then surge will run up outer cape beaches doing damage but less because there will not be as much resistance from a place like Monomoy. if eye goes west of Falmouth area winds first from the east then SE. After eye passes over cape a bit then westerlies. Strongest part of of storm will be its NE quadrant as it has the storms substaind winds and the speed of the moving storm, add them together for true wind speed.
Please stay safe this could be nasty.
Storm track last out looks like it will head over Long Island then inland, catagory 1 or less so don't expect too much.
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Last edited by OC; 08-26-2011 at 11:17 AM.
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  #14  
Old 08-26-2011, 09:30 PM
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As it stands right now, the eye of the storm will be passing about fifty miles west of our home. Patio furniture is stored and the boat is protected as well.

Let's hope this storm brings the albies in right behind it.
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