What do you think - are we going to get hammered? - Fly Fishing Forum
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  #1  
Old 09-01-2010, 12:12 PM
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What do you think - are we going to get hammered?

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  #2  
Old 09-01-2010, 12:29 PM
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Good luck Juro! Latest model has it tracking dangerously close to me also! Phil
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Old 09-01-2010, 02:23 PM
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If only it would park over South Beach for a day AND not damage any of the Chatham houses.....
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Old 09-01-2010, 02:27 PM
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Have not had chance to look at any forecasts but that large cold front over mid west should push Earl on a NNW course. Should stay strong though as it will be following Gulf Stream for the most part. Bay side of Cape will have a tough time of it if center of earl stays to east of cape. Should be strong NE winds depending how close center passes. If Earls NE quadrant has 100 MPH winds 75 miles out from center and storm is moving at 13 MPH and center is also 75 miles east of cape then bay should have 85 to 87 MPH winds out of NE with stronger gusts. Anyone else going to take a wild guess?
Please be safe and be ready early, but please watch with wonder how incredible mother nature is.
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Old 09-01-2010, 08:09 PM
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Guaranteed to be wet and windy but just how wet/windy still a question. I will be driving down to Mashpee on Thurs PM/Nite to keep an eye on cottage. Hopefully for no reason but would rather be there than here and not knowing what is going on. Would be nice if the 'southway' or its equivalent would open up.
For all that may be affected, let us be sane and not do anything foolish.
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Old 09-02-2010, 05:07 AM
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Earl from space....
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Old 09-02-2010, 06:47 AM
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Old 09-02-2010, 07:08 AM
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Just watched NESN weather....looks like we may have the recipe for a "South Beach Cocktail"
Ingredients:
- 70 + mph winds
- high tide at peak of storm
-powerful rips along the coast
- 15 to 30 foot seas

If she blows...I will predict it goes slightly left from the lookout from Morrris. It's a low area, has had many washovers and has deep water on the inside in that spot. Of course with our luck...the sand will then block the opening between Morris and NM.

Ron
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Old 09-02-2010, 07:18 AM
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SOUTHWAY SOUTHWAY SOUTHWAY

If we get a break (literally) we will declare it an annual FORUM holiday
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Old 09-02-2010, 07:46 AM
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Juro, let's meet up and head to the lookout at the refuge, not the lighthouse and do this Friday. I am heading down today (left my windows open) The tourist will be pouring off the cape. I would rather be at the cottage. Maybe FishHawk can join us and get him out of his basement tethed to the boiler....Simms is down and we can grab Penguin for dinner at the Squire.
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Old 09-02-2010, 07:59 AM
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Sounds good John, count me in.
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Old 09-02-2010, 08:33 AM
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"Hurricane Party" - just like they do in Key West.

Sorry I can't be there with you guys.

Just please be safe everyone - this could get nasty for a while ...
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  #13  
Old 09-02-2010, 10:16 AM
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John. Better bring the waterproof camera to the overlook (if you can even get there) and send the pics to the Weather Channel. Now that would be a sight for all! Most of all be safe while enjoying Mother Nature at her finest. You might need some rope to strap yourselves to a tree! LOL!

Phil
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  #14  
Old 09-02-2010, 01:11 PM
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This is a dangerous storm and much damage will happen. Latest from hurricane center says that microwave imagery shows eye wall replacement. This will make wind field larger in size but not wind speed. Earl may have reached peak at 120 knots but sheer should increase in next 36 hours, good news plus Earl is moving at 16 knots and may move even faster as it goes north. Earl should hit mid latitude westerlies in 24 hours and turn more NNE to NE sparing south cape a direct hit with the eye coming over cape. Eye should pass just to the east of Monomoy. If that is the case then there should not be a large surge on the west side of Monomoy as storm has counter clock rotation. East side o Monomoyfwill get hit hard as Earl approaches by SE winds and as storms eye moves close to same latitude as cape wind will be west pushing hard on shore on outer beaches. As eye passes Cape Cod the bay side will get NE winds but that will be the weak side of storm because storm is moving away from cape. Minus whatever wind speed on NE corner of Earl by whatever speed the storm is moving north. So if Earl has 120 knots on that NE corner of storm and storm is moving at 16 knots north then bay side may see 100 knots of wind directly on shore and some type of surge. Fred watch out for those trees on the north side of your house. Plymouth area may see flooding also. Remember wind speed reports do not usually include gusts. Not sure you will have a breakthrough at south beach unless you get a big surge pushing ocean up into west side of inner bay of Monomoy Eye of storm would have to move over south beaches of cape to have surge there. Huge winter waves hitting outside beaches did not get the breakthrough so maybe this storm wont do it. But north of south beach is going to look different once again.
John please stay safe Earl is a beaut!
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  #15  
Old 09-02-2010, 01:43 PM
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Heading down now for a weeks vacation. Stop at home for the chain saw. May come off cape friday afternoon. As Steve says, i gots some precarious trees and wires. I don't want to get the vehicles trapped and be stuck.
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