Monomoy Predictions (check in May) - Fly Fishing Forum
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  #1  
Old 12-06-2006, 08:03 AM
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Monomoy Predictions (check in May)

Ain't conjecture great?

With the southway closure and pressure to dredge the north channel, I predict the following...

1) crib will fill in - I waded across it last year in several spots unlike years prior where there were only two crossing points

2) ocean break north of southway eventually, most likely at old L-M bouy (no longer pertinent) area where the channels reach the beach

3) there will be one Monomoy Island as the gap fills in, and it will eat half of south beach

The fishing will be insane at that point.
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  #2  
Old 12-06-2006, 11:09 AM
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Conjecture...

Changes to the crib will slow substantially without a break along south beach.

Marshy areas will expand.

In the absense of a major weather event velocity of flow and sand from long shore currents will increase along south beach, thinning the beach and forming a south running spit at the end.

The spine of south monomoy is getting thin. With a major storm a break might occur.

A long duration storm like '78' re-shuffles the deck and who knows what the results will be.

The seals get fed up with the perpetual changes to there summer home and relocate to say... Rhode Island.

Again, conjecture...
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Old 12-06-2006, 12:50 PM
Guernseybass Guernseybass is offline
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j' conject :

the rising tide will push round south monomoy and through the crib, deepening that channel, up round between north monomoy and southbeach then rejoin the main current opposite morris island.

at the same time the westward facing points of southbeach will create compressions in the tide speeding the overall flow and producing strong rips downstream that will attract pelagics in the autumn, but the best fishing will be the north-south flat at the end of the tub which would then flushed with clean water on each new tide.

on a falling tide, the best fishing will be on morris island or the tip of north monomoy - the strong current which would also cause a cross rip at the mouth of stage harbour which would make it dangerous for small craft.


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Old 12-06-2006, 05:06 PM
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I`ll take a shot but only if I can hedge my bet. If things stay as they are now; one long channel extending from Chatham Harbor to the junction with Stage Harbor, emptying the tub and all the flats thru it. May, Monster catchs racked up by guys hoofing it to the end of Morris Is., dredging with Clousers. June and the cows come home looking for a big meal in the deep currents and some true monsters are landed. By July the spin guys have been replaced by the chunkers and a riot between them and the residents of the Island Assoc. breaks out when they start putting up tents on the beach. In August at a emergency meeting, parking at the causway is eliminated and tightened at the headquarters. In Sept. when thousands of hardtails show up to feed in the bait infested waters only the boat guys are there.
Could happen... but then again thats just my guess!
Slinger
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Old 12-06-2006, 06:14 PM
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Steve, I started to laugh until I realized that your scenario is not preposterous, given the "political climate" of some/not all of the home owners on Morris.
My predictions:
1. I agree that a huge channel will be created by water rushing out between Morris and the North end of NM and that the fishing will be great;
2. The lowest area I believe is the north end of SB, near the former L buoy....a breakthrough occurs as in the recent past, but this time it stays open due to the differential (pressure) of water height between inside and outside and a stronger tidal flow on the ongoing;
3. Due to #2....a land bridge developes between SB at J bouy (1/2 way there now) and NM...cutting off the South end of SB and creating a "pond" fed by an emerging full cut between (only at high tide) N and S Monomoy.
4. Cayotees invade the Monomoys and all fisher"persons" are allowed to take one bass per day 28 inches and over and 3 cayotees. Common must have "tackle" becomes double 9s...a 9 wt fly rod and a 9mm semi automatic;
5. In 10 years...SB and the Monomoys become Morris Penninsula....one big unhappy family.
Maybe we should put all these hypotheses in a time capsule plastic tackle box and bury it at the bottom of Keith's stairs
None of us win, regardless of who is right/wrong, unless the fishing is better than last year.
Ron
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  #6  
Old 12-06-2006, 08:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slinger
I`ll take a shot but only if I can hedge my bet. If things stay as they are now; one long channel extending from Chatham Harbor to the junction with Stage Harbor, emptying the tub and all the flats thru it. May, Monster catchs racked up by guys hoofing it to the end of Morris Is., dredging with Clousers. June and the cows come home looking for a big meal in the deep currents and some true monsters are landed. By July the spin guys have been replaced by the chunkers and a riot between them and the residents of the Island Assoc. breaks out when they start putting up tents on the beach. In August at a emergency meeting, parking at the causway is eliminated and tightened at the headquarters. In Sept. when thousands of hardtails show up to feed in the bait infested waters only the boat guys are there.
Could happen... but then again thats just my guess!
Slinger
Steve, I am getting excited now! If they start hitting Canal Special Pencils thrown on an Aara 1322 coupled up with a Newell 229 and 65 # braid it may be worth making some trips down there again...
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  #7  
Old 12-06-2006, 11:50 PM
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Ron- in Mass (at least in those parts where hunting is permitted), NO LIMIT on coyotes during the season (which runs from Nov 1 through to Feb 28)- may be hunted with rifles chambered no bigger than 22 long rifle (the new 17 Mach 2 loads being quite popular) OR handguns chambered no larger than 38 caliber (which would include 9 mm, 38 special, and even 357 magnum- the later being the preferred load for most handgun coyote hunters). I myself am getting "back to basics", and may start hunting them with my new Mathews bow in preparation for next year's archery deer season. Would be fun (but quite challenging) to hunt them in the refuge, but not sure if that could be done during the striper season without an act of Congress, which at present seems determined to do everything BUT act....on ANYTHING....
Flydoc
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Old 12-07-2006, 08:10 AM
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When I wrote that....I thought of you and was sure that it would catch your eye :-)
Maybe we could explain to congress that we would not turn the gun on the fish if they consistently refused our flies Maybe we could get Pete to "borrow" an amphibious vehicle to enhance the hunt!
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Old 12-07-2006, 10:39 PM
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Ron- sounds like a plan- we could even have a tailgate party a Pete's to paint the Amphtrac in an appropriate camo pattern for the refuge- and install a combo poling platform/see-thru-shoot-thru blind above the transom....better sharpen my broadheads!
Flydoc

P.S.- next year I may introduce a first to the Monomoy striper community- bowfishing for stripers! Talk about having to calculate lead....
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Old 12-08-2006, 06:19 AM
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Just remember to calculate "refraction" as well and remember to use a sandeel pattern arrow just to keep the new sport "pure".
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Old 12-08-2006, 10:42 AM
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Flydoc

Just think, your "bowfishing" backcast just might hang up on a coyote!!

Pete
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  #12  
Old 12-09-2006, 08:46 PM
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Actually, the biggest issue would be confirming the target was a keeper prior to releasing the arrow, as catch-and-release would be out of the question...maybe if the keepers would start growing antlers once they hit 28 inches
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Old 12-21-2006, 11:57 AM
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FWIW

There will be no L buoy. That will become L Street and be drivable to Monomoy. The Southway will become South Street.

The tub will hit temperatures over 80 degrees by the end of June, as it fills in.

The channel along Morris Island will have tremendous current and be loaded with fish, but will be unfishable due to all the boaters who beach their boats there and all the boat traffic using the channel. Morris Island will become better protected than our border with Mexico. Keith will be smuggling "boat people" out to fish the flats.

All the Morris Island coyotes will have a feast on the Monomoys once the birds start nesting.
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