Pete -- After I pushed "submit" I realized that you probably don't have the slow, warm water rivers like the one where I catch pike in my area. I don't think they like the faster flowing water too much. I've read that smaller pike tend to tolerate the warm water much better than larger pike, and that when pike reach a certain size they relocate to colder water. I've also read that (in my area, at least) the larger pike seem to go on a bit of a feeding binge in August even though the water is warm. This seems to agree with the pattern that I see here. Most (maybe all?) of the really big pike caught in my area have been taken through the ice. I recall reading about only one 20# class fish that was caught in open water. BTW, the "big" ones that we catch are more like your "30%" category!