09-01-2010, 12:12 PM
09-01-2010, 12:12 PM
09-01-2010, 12:29 PM
Good luck Juro! Latest model has it tracking dangerously close to me also! Phil
09-01-2010, 02:23 PM
If only it would park over South Beach for a day AND not damage any of the Chatham houses.....
09-01-2010, 02:27 PM
Have not had chance to look at any forecasts but that large cold front over mid west should push Earl on a NNW course. Should stay strong though as it will be following Gulf Stream for the most part. Bay side of Cape will have a tough time of it if center of earl stays to east of cape. Should be strong NE winds depending how close center passes. If Earls NE quadrant has 100 MPH winds 75 miles out from center and storm is moving at 13 MPH and center is also 75 miles east of cape then bay should have 85 to 87 MPH winds out of NE with stronger gusts. Anyone else going to take a wild guess?
Please be safe and be ready early, but please watch with wonder how incredible mother nature is.
09-01-2010, 08:09 PM
Guaranteed to be wet and windy but just how wet/windy still a question. I will be driving down to Mashpee on Thurs PM/Nite to keep an eye on cottage. Hopefully for no reason but would rather be there than here and not knowing what is going on. Would be nice if the 'southway' or its equivalent would open up.
For all that may be affected, let us be sane and not do anything foolish.
09-02-2010, 05:07 AM
Earl from space....
09-02-2010, 06:47 AM
"We're going to need a bigger planet"
09-02-2010, 07:08 AM
Just watched NESN weather....looks like we may have the recipe for a "South Beach Cocktail"
- 70 + mph winds
- high tide at peak of storm
-powerful rips along the coast
- 15 to 30 foot seas
If she blows...I will predict it goes slightly left from the lookout from Morrris. It's a low area, has had many washovers and has deep water on the inside in that spot. Of course with our luck...the sand will then block the opening between Morris and NM.
09-02-2010, 07:18 AM
SOUTHWAY SOUTHWAY SOUTHWAY
If we get a break (literally) we will declare it an annual FORUM holiday :smokin:
09-02-2010, 07:46 AM
Juro, let's meet up and head to the lookout at the refuge, not the lighthouse and do this Friday. I am heading down today (left my windows open) The tourist will be pouring off the cape. I would rather be at the cottage. Maybe FishHawk can join us and get him out of his basement tethed to the boiler....Simms is down and we can grab Penguin for dinner at the Squire.
09-02-2010, 07:59 AM
Sounds good John, count me in.
09-02-2010, 08:33 AM
"Hurricane Party" - just like they do in Key West. :lildevl:
Sorry I can't be there with you guys.
Just please be safe everyone - this could get nasty for a while ... :whoa:
09-02-2010, 10:16 AM
John. Better bring the waterproof camera to the overlook (if you can even get there) and send the pics to the Weather Channel. Now that would be a sight for all! Most of all be safe while enjoying Mother Nature at her finest. You might need some rope to strap yourselves to a tree! LOL!
09-02-2010, 01:11 PM
This is a dangerous storm and much damage will happen. Latest from hurricane center says that microwave imagery shows eye wall replacement. This will make wind field larger in size but not wind speed. Earl may have reached peak at 120 knots but sheer should increase in next 36 hours, good news plus Earl is moving at 16 knots and may move even faster as it goes north. Earl should hit mid latitude westerlies in 24 hours and turn more NNE to NE sparing south cape a direct hit with the eye coming over cape. Eye should pass just to the east of Monomoy. If that is the case then there should not be a large surge on the west side of Monomoy as storm has counter clock rotation. East side o Monomoyfwill get hit hard as Earl approaches by SE winds and as storms eye moves close to same latitude as cape wind will be west pushing hard on shore on outer beaches. As eye passes Cape Cod the bay side will get NE winds but that will be the weak side of storm because storm is moving away from cape. Minus whatever wind speed on NE corner of Earl by whatever speed the storm is moving north. So if Earl has 120 knots on that NE corner of storm and storm is moving at 16 knots north then bay side may see 100 knots of wind directly on shore and some type of surge. Fred watch out for those trees on the north side of your house. Plymouth area may see flooding also. Remember wind speed reports do not usually include gusts. Not sure you will have a breakthrough at south beach unless you get a big surge pushing ocean up into west side of inner bay of Monomoy Eye of storm would have to move over south beaches of cape to have surge there. Huge winter waves hitting outside beaches did not get the breakthrough so maybe this storm wont do it. But north of south beach is going to look different once again.
John please stay safe Earl is a beaut!
09-02-2010, 01:43 PM
Heading down now for a weeks vacation. Stop at home for the chain saw. May come off cape friday afternoon. As Steve says, i gots some precarious trees and wires. I don't want to get the vehicles trapped and be stuck.
09-02-2010, 04:19 PM
Well that is good advice but I just got down and I am worried about trees as well...but I want to be here to do any damage control I can....I don't expect to be running around outside but - am hopefull that is does a bit of a more right turn... And drops to a cat 1...
09-02-2010, 04:28 PM
Once we batten down the hatches Friday night, it's party time! if need be, it will be subterranean.
09-02-2010, 07:31 PM
I just got back from dinner with Simms and FishHawk at the Squire and despite the news broadcasts showing store owners in Chatham tapping windows...I did not see any windows in the downtown tapped at all...they have tomorrow to do it I suppose...but the news is showing the devastation in the Caribbean... As though it is something to compare.. It was different with a cat 4 direct hit... Boy.. The news loves to scare the heck out of people and sensationalize everything. Not downplaying this but really.....
09-03-2010, 08:12 AM
I was going to head up last night but the house is already set to go and the boat's got her storm line, not much else to do. Just sit here and hope for the best
09-03-2010, 08:53 AM
Looks like the only chance for a large surge with flooding is on bay side of Cape. NOAA has 40 to 50 % chance of storm surge from E. Dennis to Eastham. Rest of Cape 30% or less thank god for counter clock wise rotation.
09-03-2010, 10:19 AM
I think I am all set now..that is, I have done all I can...all neighbors are sticking it ot. We are only 3/10th's of a mile from the beach...no windows tapped by anyone ... It just rained really heavily but for only 5 minutes then total stop. No real wind yet. All my deck furnature and storms are down..VHS radio is charged as is my phone...I will not post or check the forum if I lose power as I use my phone for internet... And will want it charged up to max on a continuous basis. The Weather channel seems to be down grading the wind gusts as well as the sustained wind as I type this. THe 1938 storm is proof that we can really have problems in our location. If I dodge tree concerns I need to deal with several and get them cut down this spring..that is my main worry...not water.
09-03-2010, 10:33 AM
John, enjoy the being part of something all should do once in a life time, the big storm. As a sailor I've been in a few big ones and as scary as it is there is something so incredible to have been a part of that your very soul is recharged for years to come.
Be safe and listen closely as the sounds you will hear are worth the price of admission.
09-03-2010, 10:49 AM
From the looks of our Ct. news contingency reporting from Chatham, the Squire has not been boarded up. I saw it in the background. Only one store front boarding up, just to protect the glass. Business as usual? Phil
09-03-2010, 10:55 AM
News station vans are live broadcasting from the lighthouse as we speak, the place is a zoo. Every local station is there.
Word on the street is Squire has a generator, food and drink. If the lights go out they will own the town! :)
09-03-2010, 11:11 AM
Thanks OC..I agree with that.....Juro,I am getting really bored watching the news....I put on "Master and Commander"...Great Movie .."Beat to Quarters, if you please."..are you going to the Squire? - wonder if it will be too crowded? Simms was going fishing this morning...and FishHawk might go out. Call me if you are going... I may need to get out of here at least for a while
09-03-2010, 12:20 PM
I'm trying to hit a deadline... it will be nice to have no work on "Labor Day" weekend. But a Squire break should be somewhere in my plan - is Pete back home now?
09-03-2010, 02:03 PM
I don't know but I will call him...
09-03-2010, 02:25 PM
"Master and Commander" is one of my favorite movies, the books are great too. Hopefully, "Surprise is on our side" in this situation. Wish I could have made it up this weekend to watch the storm but I'll just watch it from here and hope the house is fine.
09-03-2010, 04:27 PM
Watched "Master and Commander" more than once. Good flick.
Wife was getting bored and irritable so I took her for a ride to Chatham. Just got back and now I'm irritable. Chatham has become quite the tourist trap. The light was a zoo, drove up to the refuge for peace and solace... the gate's down.
Do all those nitwits in the TV trucks get ticketed after parking for half an hour?
09-03-2010, 04:52 PM
My storm prediction - the pamet river will make the forearm of the cape a true island .
Good fishing on sandy neck tomorrow morning I reckon :)
09-03-2010, 10:04 PM
Must be the fly-fishing DNA.... Love Master and Commander