Prediction is looking like a possibility... [Archive] - Fly Fishing Forum

: Prediction is looking like a possibility...

03-04-2010, 12:39 PM
A while back I posted that I thought the top end of the tub might possibly open to the inlet's ocean waters, and it's really looking like a possibility lately. There is very little separating the ponds (which are now getting flushed every tide) and the downward slope to the tub on the other side of the dune.

Oh man... one can dream eh?

At the very least, the swimming in these ponds is going to be a safe, warmer and fun alternative to great white alley for families this summer.

03-04-2010, 03:02 PM
I've been wondering how things have been fairing with all these storms coming from the east. It has to be having some real impact.

03-04-2010, 08:50 PM
Mostly north winds today but the long flume flushing the ponds last week was wearing down to a short sand bar and it seems eminent that the ponds will become coves if this keeps up. Then we just need a block of explosives to finish the deed :)

03-04-2010, 09:12 PM
PICTURES ? ? ? Anyone in area get any? Cape Cod Chronicle "Breakthru" pics show very narrow strip of sand separating ponds from harbor. Should be a very interesting April/May/June season as long as the seals don't decide it is their private swimming hole.


03-05-2010, 07:36 AM
FWIW, a breach on South Beach appears more likely given the continued shoaling in the lighthouse cut.

03-05-2010, 08:35 AM
We shall see... but I don't think it's possible to guess. One could pontificate that the southward shifting which is constant could pull sand down along the rest of South Beach (Lighthouse Beach becomes South Beach) to keep it full while the vacancy becomes a hole, or not.

Wind is mostly east today, and with big tides. Coastal flood advisories - and the surf is vicious. I would like to see the ponds become coves, as a starting point.

I'll get out there with a camera at some point big crisis at work to deal with today :eek:

03-05-2010, 02:01 PM
The cove should fish well on the outgoing if it does breach. I also see that popneset spit has two potential breaches following washovers and chapin beach is flooding behind the dunes every high tide.

Interesting times. The bay side will need a good scout first in April


03-05-2010, 08:23 PM
If what I read in Mashpee Enterprise is any where near correct they are supposed to start to re-nourish the spit with the sand from the dredge at the outflow. They have done it the past couple of years and seems to have helped but the 'spit' continues it's slow march into Poppy Bay! Can't wait to get down there to open cottage and see what has happened all along that stretch of beach.

Pete Readel

03-08-2010, 07:04 AM
Got the above link from a forum on North Beach via the Cape Cod Chronical. A little slow loading but the pics are a from March 7 fly up and down the outer beach. You get to the inlet at the light at about slide 85.

Sorry the link I had posted didn't get there. Go to the link below then look for the forum link on the left side bar. Several posts down will be a post from KarlS with a link to a photoshop slide show.

03-08-2010, 09:23 AM
Fred, looks like I've got a couple of years of exploring as a result of his great photos. Also, it appears there are a couple of drains north of the old southway on South Beach. Thanks for the link.

03-08-2010, 11:31 AM

Interesting (albiet I just did a quick scan during lunch) analysis looks at the system from 1846 and projects to about 2050.

03-08-2010, 08:26 PM
one can only hope...,:D Wake me from this dream when a positive sighting of 3 of 5 anglers have good fish on in front of the Rosa Ragusa, at the same time......:lildevl: AND Capt. Keith is giving us the "thumbs up" as he ferrys a full load of birders and seal watchers to the B bouy......,like this is nothing unusual!!Can't wait!!! My memory needs this kind of refresher...,!:cool:

03-09-2010, 07:02 AM
Fred, thanks for that link. Looks like it might be a good time to be in the house moving business.

03-09-2010, 07:20 AM
Has anyone actually been down to lighthouse beach yet ?

There's a report on SOL that the water was flowing over into the tub at high tide two days ago.....

I hope that's not bs.


03-09-2010, 03:27 PM
I was there at low tide and didn't see any evidence of that happening. I could see where the two small ponds near the big girl bar might merge. It is possible the the was some washover but there is a rather large berm for the tide to breach to get into the tub. I didn't explore any further because the wind was howling. I'll get down there in a couple of weeks at high tide to take some photos. FishHawk

03-09-2010, 04:39 PM
Hmmm, that's what I thought Bill. I've tramped over that berm a few times with leaden feet on the way back to the light a few times.

It's pretty high and wide. Still 2-3 bobcats on a moonless night could really alters things, I'm not suggesting anything, I'm just saying . Z z

03-09-2010, 06:07 PM
I heard that there was at least a million dollars worth of pirate treasure buried under that berm....pass the word :devil:

03-09-2010, 08:21 PM
Lighthouse Beach... the ponds have flooded during the past few noteworthy astronomical tides but the berm is holding firm...
North Breach...

There were several large wash-overs on South Beach but nothing sustainable...
The old South Way is bigger and fatter than ever...

03-09-2010, 09:08 PM
Great photo Pedro.
Think Spring!!!:roll:

03-10-2010, 04:30 AM
Well there you have the photographic evidence .:smokin: I'll still try to do a high tide recon. FishHawk:D

03-10-2010, 05:59 AM
it doesn't look any different to last year :Eyecrazy:

03-10-2010, 06:22 AM
Here's a representative undisclosed location parking lot on Pleasant Bay...
The "Outer" beaches have taken a pounding and erosion has been noteworthy...
I'll get out to some of the usual places soonerorlater to take some pics but, inthemeantime...
DON"T BUY any property near an oceanfront cliff!

03-10-2010, 08:47 AM
Awesome stuff.

This may not be new but I just noticed that my version of google earth has historical sat imagery. Very cool. You click on the clock up in the toolbar and a slider will come up that will allow you to go back as far as May 1996 (date depends on the level of zoom that you use).

I'm bored and did this quick little animation. Watch closely.... The changes are subtle but massive. Its best to stare at a particular area where you know change has occurred. You may have to watch it a couple of times to see the effect.

If I were a betting man I'd say we are looking at the beginnings of South Beach collapsing into the tub and forming a solid land mass with North and South Monomoy. Notice how the Morris Island flats and the flats west of North Monomoy are being pushed eastward. At the same time South Beach is sliding to the southwest. I don't think it'll happen in my lifetime but it seems like that is the very long term direction of change out there.

03-11-2010, 09:27 PM
Saturday night and Sunday look interesting. 30 mph winds from the northeast. Too bad the tides aren't a little bigger.

03-14-2010, 06:07 AM
This is a pretty nasty storm - our house has been battered all night . Must be a lot of damage on the coast again.....

Mike Oliver
03-14-2010, 08:30 AM
Guys real issue is I guess that we were born at the wrong time.


03-15-2010, 01:05 PM
Anxiously awaiting news on the latest storm...... If anyone gets a chance to get down there please post.


03-15-2010, 02:30 PM
MRWA are reporting this as the worst storm in 25 years. We have had over sixty hours of heavy rain - near 10" . 3 of which is in my basement despite the fact we are on a hill ....

High tide was at 1pm btw.

03-20-2010, 06:41 AM

Some new pics, march 19, high tide. Go to the above link and on the right sidebar there is a link to Karl Swenson Feb 5 slide show. Once in, at top left click on gallery and pick Monomoy march 19 for shots of the light down to south monomoy.

03-20-2010, 08:08 AM
Thanks for the link. It looks like we got our wish.

03-20-2010, 08:48 AM
Juro, better buy that Gheenoe.

03-20-2010, 09:57 AM
Jim, that mini-break with the two streams has been occurring most winters at that spot. Too much sand in the area to be sustained. Those pics are at about high tide. Big tides at the end of the month though so who know's. If the troughs got deep enough where current was carving through the tide cycle...

03-20-2010, 06:34 PM
oh I don't know Fred - that left channel looks pretty deep at what is not a very high tide (4.5ft).

I've been down there and seen it at high tide before and it was only knee/calf deep.

that is much deeper, we can have some hope on that one, and I'll be watching it carefully from now on :wink:


03-21-2010, 04:46 PM
Good link Fred. Three seasons ago we had some sustainable water moving through there over the summer but those channels look much bigger now

03-26-2010, 05:53 PM
I have a couple of fond memories of the "guzzle".

Anxiously waiting for the high water mark, a trickle gradually becoming a deluge breaking over from the ocean side ... screeming terns going nuts and keeper stripers blasting sandeels in the white water torrent .... oh yea ... fond memories :smokin: