What is your prediction for 2010? [Archive] - Fly Fishing Forum

: What is your prediction for 2010?


Green Ghost
10-25-2009, 12:16 PM
Hi Gents (and ladies),

You all must be too busy reading statistics and deciding if and where you will test the winter drawing reservation systems. (less than one week away). It has been way too quite on this board, there must be some Optimistic/ scientific folks out there that will say Spawning was GOOD in 2003 (7 years ago) so there will be Good returns despite the overall decline in grilse counts this past season. ANY INPUT? :confused:

Green Ghost
10-28-2009, 02:20 PM
Hi Again,

I Thought is was very Quiet out there. I guess that SILENT is more like it. NOBODY OUT OF 86 VIEWS HAS ANYTHING TO SAY?? NO PREDICTIONS??

I Guess the rivers are going to be pretty empty because no one will fish in 2010 so there will be lots of room to cast and picking zones will be a breeze instead of a challenge.

There must be somebody out there with some input! Even a short story about 2009 would suffice, this board is dead!:confused:

Earle Fletcher
10-28-2009, 03:07 PM
The small runs of grilse in my favorite salmon rivers this year has me worried about the prospects for 2 year at sea salmon next year, but it's not going to stop me from making a trip to Gaspe, Quebec in June and to the Miramichi in September. There are always a few 3 year fish and repeat spawners plus grilse. The mid summer trip is the one in question. I usually do this one at the last minute when the fishing conditions look promicing. If they don't look half decent, I don't go.

Good luck in the preseason draws!

Earle Fletcher

Green Ghost
10-28-2009, 05:48 PM
Thanks Earle,

I appreciate that you have the courtesy to provide some honest input. Good luck to you also.

I am not a biologist and do not claim to know the ins and outs of salmon returns. I have read that we are expecting a decrease in 2-Sea winter fish due to low grilse runs in 2009. I have only read this in the general sense. Is there a model or a historical trend that can be referenced that can prove that trend? Has anyone got a statistical example? A comparison from one year to another?

Is there a reason to exercise more stringent Catch and Release Policies as described by Salar 36? OR to wait until a mid season count or to achieve a satisfactory escapement before allowing a harvest? I am only thinking about the future here.. any input??

Does anyone predict a banner year for Grilse? Based on good returns and spawning escapement in 2003??

My questions are directed towards educating myself and obviously lean towards conservational ideals.

Thanks for reading

Venture
10-29-2009, 12:05 PM
It's quite easy to predict that fishing will be tough. It is always tough.

We were supposed to have a banner year this year because of the prior year's grilse runs yet we were sabotaged by the near drought conditions.

Hopefully conditions will be better this year. Couldn"t really be worse.

One thing for sure. The Metropole Hotel is up for sale.

Salar36
10-29-2009, 03:45 PM
"Has anyone got a statistical example? A comparison from one year to another? "

I did the exercice to see with the Matane statistics if we have a significant relationship between the number of grilse a year and the number of MSW the year after.

With the last 24 years data, we have a ratio of .982 (so when 1000 grilse came a year, in average, 982 salmon came the year after). For the last 24 years, this ratio has been lower than .75 only 2 times, and higher than 1,25 only 2 times. Based ont last 24 years stats and less than 800 grilses in 2009, we can reasonably expect that the Matane will have between 570 and 950 MSW, with an average of 736 salmon...

BUT...I did the same exercice, based in the last 10 years. The average is significantly lower, at .84. And the highest level was, .94, the lowest at .67. With these number, the new interval of confident (I am not sure that term is right in english) would be between 535 and 750, with an average of 672. The conservation level is established at 625 (too low IMHO)...The date of revision on the Matane is August 15th, at this date, we can easily expect that at least 150 MSW will have been caught and killed...

The Matane has probably the most critical situation in Gaspe, on other rivers, the run of grilse was lower than 2008, but not that much than Matane compared with the long term average (keep in mind that 2008 was one of the highest run of grilse since long time, so not a good benchmark). But the current indicator provide the information that if the current regulation is not change on this river, we may see the worst spawn of the last 30 years in 2010. I just hope that we can be more proactive than that...

Venture, even if the fishing was bad, the number of MSW in Matane for 2009 was very good...2010 will be worst.

Green Ghost
11-14-2009, 07:33 AM
Thanks Salar 36,

That is a nice mathematical analysis. Maybe the grilse runs were low because of the drought? Maybe there will be more two sea-winter fish than we think because they failed to enter the rivers? Maybe the runs of Grilse this year will be large due to good spawning in 2003? Maybe there will be less fishing pressure on the rivers than in previous years due to the economy and predictions of a poor 2010?

Unfortunately, pure speculation on the part of a few of us avid salmon anglers isn't going to result in Action by the various river management systems to institute conservative measures to protect those fish that do return. Things apppear to be status quo, the dollar will be spent, the killing will resume, and the stocks may indeed suffer. When will they realize it is too late?

MAYBE we'll all find out the hard way.:tsk_tsk:

By the way, there isn't any Maybe in my plans to fish and continue to catch and release. That is of course dependent on CHANCE also..:D

Have a great winter and good luck in your river selections for 2010.

Salar-1
12-03-2009, 07:00 PM
I hope and believe that there'll be an increase in 3 and possibly 4 MSW fish this summer coming. Quebec's North shore didn't get the torential fall rains the past few yrs. so I'll predict the runs should be slightly on the increase again .
Cheers
Brian

Manitou
12-04-2009, 12:01 PM
I hope and believe that there'll be an increase in 3 and possibly 4 MSW fish this summer coming. Quebec's North shore didn't get the torential fall rains the past few yrs. so I'll predict the runs should be slightly on the increase again .
Cheers
Brian


Brian

We did have major rainfall in the last years just it didn't make the news like it did on the Penninsula (south shore). Some of those rainfall did affect the rivers, I live in the middle of two of them that have been affected.

Jocelin

humber123
12-25-2009, 05:28 PM
I believe 2010 will be a great year (compared to previous seasons) for large spring salmon and lots of them

Why?

Because we are experiencing a comparatively harsh winter with lots of snow. I can only think back to season 1978 and 1985 as comparators which were very good indeed.

Not much science - just a gut feeling.

humber123

Manitou
12-25-2009, 09:00 PM
Humber123

Your snow predictions could be right, but here on the North Shore we have almost no snow and we just expereince some of the warmest days in December with 3 days of rain Dec 21 22 23, Dec 24 was +3 sunny blue skies. On the DEC 21 we had musquitoes flying around the porch.

Rivers are real low compared to the last 3 years .

Jocelin

humber123
12-31-2009, 03:46 PM
Manitou

It is still snowing in Edinburgh as I write

This is unprecedented - 2 weeks of snow. I have never seen this before and I am nearly 53!

A Happy and Warm New Year to all on this Forum

humber123

Manitou
01-05-2010, 11:24 AM
Manitou

It is still snowing in Edinburgh as I write

This is unprecedented - 2 weeks of snow. I have never seen this before and I am nearly 53!

A Happy and Warm New Year to all on this Forum

humber123


Humber123

I guess in your area the snow is packing up, to bad we can't say the same for Quebec North Shore area, since our last exchange we had lots of rain 4 days of the wet stuff with temperatures climbing all the way to +8 celcius, this is not common for this part of Quebec.

This morning it's a tad colder the temperature is hovering under the freezing mark wich created this icy mess

Happy New Year to all of you also

Jocelin

humber123
01-10-2010, 01:34 AM
Here is a weather update from Scotland!

Here are some pics of the Forth today

http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/ll59/Tweedbunnet/troutandsalmonforum/SnowScenesinEdinburghandStirling006.jpg

http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/ll59/Tweedbunnet/troutandsalmonforum/SnowScenesinEdinburghandStirling007.jpg

http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/ll59/Tweedbunnet/troutandsalmonforum/SnowScenesinEdinburghandStirling009.jpg

This was the Runway at Edinburgh Airport around 1045 today

http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/ll59/Tweedbunnet/troutandsalmonforum/SnowScenesinEdinburghandStirling003.jpg

and here is apicture of my mum clearing the path at her house

http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/ll59/Tweedbunnet/troutandsalmonforum/SnowScenesinEdinburghandStirling016.jpg

The snow is at least 5 inches deep after settling and pretty crunchy underfoot.

Must say I have never seen so many birds gathered together at the one spot on a river before

The ice was all the way across (70-80 metres or so) and pretty thick in many places

It is going to be a massive flood when it melts

tweedbunnet

juro
01-12-2010, 01:06 PM
Thanks for the images from the Tweed. I can see how a Spey cast would be the right cast for fishing this river, and hope to do it someday soon. Now go shovel for mum! ;)

flyspoke
02-02-2010, 10:18 AM
For a number of years I have been watching the data collected on the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean and the relationship to my favorite angling experience.

As each of my precious Salmon seasons have passed there have been so many reasons talked about for the deterioration of the species. I have heard about ice bergs, dams, pollution, seals, sea lice, netting, Catch & Release, catching too many, logging, fish farming and on and on and on..........

In my opinion, there is no greater threat to many species on earth than Climate Change. Without getting political and looking for a reason why, I would like to examine two scientific calculations that prove difficult to disregard. After all, there has always been Climate Change. Also the charting is in exact movement as to the world wide Salmon stocks.

North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) The charting of this scale is used as a yearly, month to month condition in the surface climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. There are great fluctuations in the current NAO graph. Please note from this graph that we have experienced a substantial negative condition starting in October of 2009. For Atlantic Salmon, cod and other cold water species negative is a good thing. This has accounted for the extreme cold conditions that have been experienced in Europe this winter. Also note that the graph position today is almost neutral with fifteen day forecasts moving negative. Where the current condition goes will make prediction of what the abundance and size of Atlantic Salmon for the 2010 season an easy task. A negative season in NAO equals greater abundance and size due to food availability. Currently Scotland is experiencing three times the number of rod angled salmon than the ten year historical average on the River Tay. And as of the opening on the Dee just yesterday, I think the Scots will be happy.


Atlantic Multidecatil Oscillation(AMO) This longer term measurement is used by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) to have a forty year average change in the NAO. This is the true scientific calculation for what has happened to the King of Fish over time. The overall gradient change proves warming.


My Conclusions

1. Salmon abundance is a year to year calculation
2. Salmon abundance is a decade to decade calculation
3. The AMO indicates a warming trend over the last forty years
4. Salmon stocks have declined over the last forty years
5. The NAO had a negative average position over the last five years
6. Negative NAO improves the food source for Atlantic Salmon
7. Salmon stocks have improved over the last five years
8. The NAO has been in a substantial negative position from October 2009
9. I'm feeling pretty good about the 2010 season
10. I'm not hopeful about the future

As I write this I can't help but feel that I have lived through the time of our greatest decline. Any sportsmen knows that there is a change in our waters.

So when the question of what is your prediction of the up coming Salmon season will be, wait till February, check the NAO charts for conformation and you should be correct every time.

Please let me know what you think of this post. flyspoke@gmail.com


William
flyspoke.blogspot

humber123
02-03-2010, 04:18 PM
One thing I am noticing

It is snowing again in Edinburgh as I write. This is 2 weeks after the month long snow fest which hit Scotland. Most peculiar and not someting I can ever remember occurring.

Final point. The average weight of the largest Spring Salmon caught in the River Tweed so far this week (after 3 days fishing) is about 12lbs. This is a good bit higher than the long term average of 8-9 lbs. A good portent or not? We will know by end of March if 2010 is likely to be a season of bigger and more abundant Spring fish.

humber123

flyspoke
02-03-2010, 05:28 PM
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Dear Humber,

Please have a look at this graph. It shows this season and has a forecast for the North Atlantic Oscillation over the next two weeks and it is going negative.

You should make sure you don't put away the winter coat. The snow will continue in Edinburgh and we are sure to have a great salmon season. Also note that during the time that the snow let up the graph was neutral.

Follow the graph is all I can say.

William

silverleapers
03-03-2010, 05:43 PM
Having had a look at this theory before and again now....I can't help but notice a lack of correlation between what happen with the NAO and the salmon returns for 2007, 2008, and 2009 both here in NL and globally. Neither the the 3 month JFM nor the monthly graphs support the theory. Or did I miss something?

A recent RAP session in St.John's by DFO looked at ice and 2sw returns but even that did not have a high explanation of the variance.

What I have noticed is that instead of regions being hit it seems the whole world is in sync.

I've tried factoring in various cause and effect scenarios and my friend at DFO (head of Salmonids - Gulf Region) is at as much of a ? as I am.