05-22-2006, 07:27 AM
I have just read the most interesting article in the UK publication Fly Fishing and Fly Tying. This is the April 2006 issue and titled The 2006 Silver Rush.
According to the author, Malcolm Greenhalgh, the major reason in the rise and fall of salmon returns is the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO). What this represents is a direct cause and effect on the size and quantity of the returns for a given season. In the article, it shows how cold and rainy winters in the North Atlantic with wide ranges of barometric pressure result in lean returns. Primarily because the food source becomes short in supply and dispersed.
What was also explained was that during the winter of 2005-2006 the North was in a pattern of narrow difference in pressure from north to south. This creates a favorable environment for feeding and a lower mortality rate over the harsh winter. From my own observation I can now understand why we have a certain quantity of fish that winter in the rivers. Nature does have a way of separating the runs for the preservation of the species.
If the NAO is correct, we are in for one of the best salmon returns in the last 30 years. Tracking back the effects of the NAO we can understand the poor runs of the 80ís and 90ís. The favorable pattern has been in effect since the 2004 season explaining the better runs that have accrued.
Wishing you all the very best of seasons,
05-22-2006, 08:53 AM
The article sounds interesting and gives me some cause for optimism. Generally speaking the way that predictions are made (the folks that I speak to in North America) relate to looking back 5 years as to how the runs and spawning deposits were as a future indicator for a specific year. Additionally, looking at a year with a strong grilse run suggests the following year will be a good year for two sea-winter salmon.
That said, biologists in both The Quebec Government and ASF were not suggesting that the Atlantic Salmon runs (speaking now of Quebec) would be great for 2 sea-winter fish. I had heard that the runs for the larger/repeat spawners would be good (the early run we get in the fist half of June) and that expectations for grilse were also good. I must admit I did not pursue further questions as to the how's and why's. I will make a couple of phone calls today.
Let's hope that the trends of the past 5 years (noticeably increasing runs) will continue througout North America. My fingers are crossed and we will start to get a glimpse with the full moon in a couple of weeks.
Good luck on the Matapedia
05-22-2006, 02:20 PM
If we can assume that the data collected in relation to the NAO has been proven by re-tracking the readings from years past and the known runs of those following seasons are correct, then predictions based on parr counts is but a small piece of the puzzle.
As we know from parr counts, the number of fish to leave the river is based upon the available environment that the Alvin, parr and smolt were subjected. In years of lower alvin production we see higher percentages of fish making it to the smolt stage. Less total fish to begin with equals more available food per fish thus leading to a healthier % seeding. My understanding is that each river can only support an ideal number of juvenile residents. There is a maximum.
It makes such clear sense to me that if the feeding grounds of the North Atlantic are in a positive condition that growth rates and numbers will both be up at the same time. It is going to be interesting to note what happens this year. Fish are already up in the Casuapscal and I have word of bright fish(hard to believe if it were not directly form someone who I trust) landed during kelt season on the Marimachi. Reports of brights on the Restigouche are in and size has mattered.
According to this NAO information the increases in numbers of fish have a direct correlation to the lack of highs and lows differences in the North Atlantic. The difference in the 2005-2006 winter was very small.
You know many more people in the know than I do. Please tell me what they think of this.
Yes thanks, I am on Glenn Emma in June. I am hoping that the pools will be smiling at me.
05-22-2006, 03:01 PM
According to the Qc. gov't biologist that gave a resume in Grandby last winter.
Based on last years returns 3 MSW's should be way up in #'s
Due to last years lack of Grilse ,2 MSW #'s should be way down.
Due to the high Parr #'s last year this years Grilse #'s should be way up there as well ! Juvenile fish were in abundance all over Qc. (including Qc's North shore) ,NB and NS. The only black cloud in all of this was last year's Nov. torrents and how they affected parr and redds
If this year's Landlock fishing is any indication we ARE in for a great year.
05-22-2006, 06:07 PM
Here's my '06 Gaspe prediction.
IMHO ,Insane, fantastic early fishing till around mid June .A record fish caught on Bonnie and Matapedia.Earliest recorded fish on the Bonnie. Record 1st week on York and 1st 2 weeks on Matapedia. and THEN after 20th June ,golfing or Walleye for the rest of the summer.
We had better than average % of Grisles last season too. The Biologist also equated that to a good year in '06 for us.
GOLF !!! ... Come over and see us mid summer for the adult sea run Brookies !!
Really happy you'll be golfing when I'm enjoying the last week of June. Can't wait.
05-22-2006, 10:53 PM
Don't worry I'll be down there as well in late June AND August AND Sept AND Nova Scotia in October. Where ya fishing ?
I WILL have to get back up on the Ste. Marguerite again.BTW Don't golf.There's not enough time to do all the fishing I'd like to .
05-23-2006, 06:18 PM
I made a couple of calls today (yesterday was a holiday in Canada so I was unable to reach anyone then) and consensus is that the MSW fish (3yrs+ and repeat spawners) will be very good. Additionally, the grilse run should be good as well. As to 2SW salmon the expectation is that the numbers will be slightly greater than they were in 2005. I will gladly take those numbers of salmon if that is the case.
We will know soon enough, though. I have heard of a couple of salmon being landed on The Causapscaul in the past couple of days and I have a couple of friends fishing there on Thursday. Always nice to hear of fresh salmon being caught!
WRKE-- best of luck at Glenn's!
05-24-2006, 02:53 PM
HUH ?? HMMMMM Them sneaky 2 MWS fish :-O
. As to 2SW salmon the expectation is that the numbers will be slightly greater than they were in 2005.
05-24-2006, 03:44 PM
Let's hope they do suprise us with their numbers. Who spoke in Grandby last year; someone from Quebec or someone from the region?
Are you fishing in Gaspe this season or down the coast?