Excellent article on El Nino [Archive] - Fly Fishing Forum

: Excellent article on El Nino


juro
03-08-2006, 07:38 AM
Well illustrated and very clearly explained:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/gcg/RTN/rtnt.html

With oceanic conditions being cited as a key influence in the success (or failure) of anadramous migrations and survival, I find this article from UW of great value in understanding what the effects of a phenomenon like El Nino can be on species.

SSPey
03-08-2006, 10:34 AM
another goodie

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/REPORTS/OSPREY/ospreyFINAL.doc

Moonlight
03-08-2006, 10:51 AM
It states that effects can be felt all the way into Cananda, just this last year the Sardines which were almost nonexsistent at the Mouth of the Columbia were found as far north as Noyes Island (West of Ketchikan) in SE Alaska.
Juro thanks for posting this I enjoyed reading and passing it along to few of my other friends.
I was thinking what a great job oppurtunity it would be to get several of the Fishing Guides in the Forks area work as on board observers on that Offshore Data Bouy to releive the two guys that perched on it!:lildevl:

juro
03-08-2006, 10:54 AM
I wondered if one of the guys perched on the bouy was our birthday boy :D

Omar
03-08-2006, 11:52 AM
Wow,

That is some very interesting and thought provoking stuff. Seems very related to what I'm seeing on the ground

Thanks Guys

flytyer
03-08-2006, 11:51 PM
Juro,

I have a brother-in-law who is ann ABD (this means all but dissertation for those unfamiliar with the term, in simply terms, it means he only needs to write a dissertation to get a PH. D. in either of both of the fields) in both computer science and meteorology. Last summer when we visited my family in Pennsylvania, Mike and I sat down and had a fairly long discussion about El Nino.

Mike works for the National Weather Service and his specialty and job is computer modeling of storm tracks, El Ninos, and jet stream across the county. At any rate, Mike told me that El Ninos even effect the frequency and severity of tornados and hurricanes, as well as blizzards and how windy it gets in the northern half of the US. Mike told me that this is well known amongst those who work in storm tracking, get stream tracking, and hurricanes and tornados and that it was described as far back as the early 1920's by the scientist in the field.

Now here is the real kicker, these longer lasting El Ninos happen on about a 45 year cycle and to a lessor degree on about a 25 year cycle. And no one knows what causes the El Nino, although Mike said that some in his field relate it to earhquakes fequency and volcanic activity around the world.

At any rate, it is facinating stuff and shows us that we can do very little about it since it is naturally occuring and its cause is unkown at this time.

SSPey
03-09-2006, 12:22 AM
flytyer,

With respect to your bro, if the cause is unknown, then it's wrong to conclude that it's natural. The El Nino phenomenon as a whole certainly has natural causes in the sense that it reflects aspects of the Earth's thermal system. However, the dramatically increased frequency of El Ninos in recent years is eerily coincidental with lots of other mucking - and the scientific consensus is abundantly clear that humans are affecting the Earth's thermal system. Some scientists have linked the increased El Nino frequency to that warming, but in truth no one knows at that level of detail, so its probably best just to leave it at that until the pros get it worked out.

juro
03-09-2006, 07:19 AM
I learned more about effect than cause in reading these pieces and while I could easily draw conclusions about the relationship between human atmospheric influences and El Nino they would be anecdotal at best.

It's certain that we have a negative influence on the environment as a species and by human nature we never act proactively but rather we react late when all has gone to pot. El Nino may or may not be one of those things (where we can acknowledge our impact yet remain agnostic) is unknown; regardless the global effect and the understanding scientists have been gaining is impressive and informative.

If nothing else I came away with a simple quote Chief Seattle made a long time ago... "all things are connected".

Moonlight
03-09-2006, 09:16 AM
There are new and ongoing studies in the Indian Ocean that will link into what we do know about the Pacific and Atlantic conveyors and how they tend to "Connect" it all is fascinating and I am pleased that the Scientist are remembering to give us a "Lay language" report from time to time.
It kinda looks like we might have a more normal year at Neah Bay I hope there are a few fish as well!

SalmoGairdneri
03-09-2006, 09:45 AM
SNIP
It kinda looks like we might have a more normal year at Neah Bay I hope there are a few fish as well!

It is funny because I too look at whatever information I can find in terms of Neah Bay impact. Last year was frustrating - apart from the bottom fishing.

I love that idea of placing people on buoys to make weather & wave observations.

-tony

juro
03-09-2006, 10:23 AM
:cool: We'll get that hooknose clave in yet!

flytyer
03-09-2006, 06:55 PM
Steve,

The El Nino phenomenon has been known since the early 1900's. And its cylical nature has been documented, which is one of the reasons the National Weather Service predicted last year that we were entering into a several year cycle of increased huricane and tornado activity along with an increase in the severity of both types of storms. And as has been pointed out by others, the effects of El Ninos that last a few years are well known and have been well-known for many years. Also, since there has been nothing man does that climatologist, meteorologist, or oceanographers have been able to point to as the causitive factor, it is entirely acceptable in the scientific method to ascribe it to being a naturally occuring phenomena, just like tornados, huricans, blizzards, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and thunder storms. As far as any of them now know or have evidence for it, El Nino just happens as a natural earth process.

SalmoGairdneri
03-10-2006, 09:42 AM
Steve,

The El Nino phenomenon has been known since the early 1900's. And its cylical nature has been documented, which is one of the reasons the National Weather Service predicted last year that we were entering into a several year cycle of increased huricane and tornado activity along with an increase in the severity of both types of storms. And as has been pointed out by others, the effects of El Ninos that last a few years are well known and have been well-known for many years. Also, since there has been nothing man does that climatologist, meteorologist, or oceanographers have been able to point to as the causitive factor, it is entirely acceptable in the scientific method to ascribe it to being a naturally occuring phenomena, just like tornados, huricans, blizzards, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and thunder storms. As far as any of them now know or have evidence for it, El Nino just happens as a natural earth process.

I'm not saying, I'm just saying... You ought to stick to topics of fishing because in that arena, we all accept the anecdotal, keyword-sprinkled, half-understandings as part of the game.

Hell, we even enjoy them on that topic.

-tony