Black Gold [Archive] - Fly Fishing Forum

: Black Gold


Slinger
08-31-2005, 09:53 AM
The question is, How much of an impact will the soaring price of gas have on your fishing? With all the refinery dammage in the Gulf states the price of gas went from $2.61 yesterday morning to $ 2.77 last night and is expected to top $3 a gallon today in Rhoddy. Where it will stop is anybodys guess. What I want to know is why does gas thats in the tanks at the station, and allready billed, rise at the first hint of any bad news? My little Whaler omly holds 18 gal but a .50 rise adds $9 every time I fill up, plus towing the boat drinks gas. I`m on vac. next week and planed on chaseing hardtails all week but I may have to readjust my plans and shorten up some of the Honey-do list instead. Visits to exotic places like CCB and the Sluiceway may have to be scrapped.
Slinger

sean
08-31-2005, 10:08 AM
For me it means less trips out to the cape and south county and just chasing bluefish in the upper bay. Luckily a good beach is only a 5 minute walk from the house.

Planning on getting a boat this spring and that means I gotta find a full time fishing partner to share the gas costs.

It also means I am considering a small car to use to commute to far off fishing places that gets over 40mpg. Not as cool looking but will help the old wallet.

-sean

Dble Haul
08-31-2005, 10:59 AM
Gas prices will not change my fishing habits. If necessary, Anne and I will simply eat out less and do without a few other luxuries (now that I think about it, we already are doing this). But we love to travel too much to have it put a pinch on where we go, even in the boat.

ebott
08-31-2005, 11:27 AM
T HAS BEEN CALCULATED THAT IF EVERYONE IN THE UNITED STATES DID NOT PURCHASE A DROP OF GASOLINE FOR ONE DAY AND ALL AT THE SAME TIME, THE OIL COMPANIES WOULD CHOKE ON THEIR STOCKPILES.
AT THE SAME TIME IT WOULD HIT THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY WITH A NET LOSS OF OVER 4.6 BILLION DOLLARS WHICH AFFECTS THE BOTTOM LINES OF THE OIL COMPANIES.
THEREFORE SEPTEMBER 1ST HAS BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED "STICK IT UP THEIR @$$ " DAY AND THE PEOPLE OF THIS NATION SHOULD NOT BUY A SINGLE DROP OF GASOLINE THAT DAY.
THE ONLY WAY THIS CAN BE DONE IS IF YOU FORWARD THIS E-MAIL TO AS MANY PEOPLE AS YOU CAN AND AS QUICKLY AS YOU CAN TO GET THE WORD OUT.
WAITING ON THIS ADMIINSTRATION TO STEP IN AND CONTROL THE PRICES IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REDUCTION AND CONTROL IN PRICES THAT THE ARAB NATIONS PROMISED WEEKS AGO?
REMEMBER ONE THING, NOT ONLY IS THE PRICE OF GASOLINE GOING UP BUT AT THE SAME TIME AIRLINES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES, TRUCKING COMPANIES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES WHICH EFFECTS PRICES ON EVERYTHING THAT IS SHIPPED. THINGS LIKE FOOD, CLOTHING, BUILDING MATERIALS, MEDICAL SUPPLIES ETC. WHO PAYS IN THE END? WE DO!
WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE. IF THEY DON'T GET THE MESSAGE AFTER ONE DAY, WE WILL DO IT AGAIN AND AGAIN

Dble Haul
08-31-2005, 12:08 PM
ebott-

First, please take off your caps lock key. It gives the impression that you're yelling.

Second, the idea of boycotting the gas companies for a day is highly flawed. If nobody gets gas tomorrow, that means that there will be higher than normal gas purchasing today and in the days after. This will keep the gas companies afloat; in fact, they'll be fine. It's a law of economics and statistical averages, plain and simple.

Sure, higher gas prices stink right now. But pushing e-mails for ineffective boycotts simply won't make a dent.

FishHawk
08-31-2005, 01:38 PM
Well the $3.00 gallon is here in Natick , Ma. Exxon on rt 30 is charging $3.33 for regular gas. On Rt 9 the cheapest gas is $2.69.This is quite a price spread. Wonder why such a large spread? I think we are kidding ourselves that this will not effect us. I know what my next car will be a Hydrid. FishHawk

Dble Haul
08-31-2005, 02:24 PM
I think we are kidding ourselves that this will not effect us.

Well, like I said....it already is affecting me and my wife. But I will try my hardest not to let it affect my fishing.

Although I just heard a report from some so-called experts that the price per gallon of $4 is not too distant in the future. Now that's a price that could put a serious damper on travel and fishing. :eek:

flydoc
08-31-2005, 02:32 PM
Well I'm definitely wondering how smart I was trading in my fuel-frugal Corrolla for my hungry Tundra (V6 instead of V8, but still with mileage about half as good as the coup) late 2003. But now that I have it, I don't think I could comfortably go back...I kept banging my head getting into the little car....so more hot dogs and Hot Pockets at home, ?down grade my cable service, etc. etc.... :frown:
Flydoc

Dble Haul
08-31-2005, 02:46 PM
Here is a relevant piece. Let's all keep our collective fingers crossed on this, and remember that while gas prices are increasing there are far bigger problems stemming from Katrina. At least most of us still have a roof over our heads.

--------

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Consumers can expect retail gas prices to rise to $4 a gallon soon but whether they stay there depends on the long-term damage to oil facilities from Hurricane Katrina, oil and gas analysts said Wednesday.

"There's no question gas will hit $4 a gallon," Ben Brockwell, director of pricing at the Oil Price Information Service, said. "The question is how high will it go and how long will it last?"

OPIS tracks wholesale and retail oil prices and provides pricing information for AAA's daily reports on fuel prices.

Brockwell said with gasoline prices now exceeding $3 a gallon before even reaching the wholesale level, it "doesn't take a genius" to expect retail prices to hit $4 a gallon soon.

"Consumers haven't seen the worst of it yet," Brockwell said.

He expects consumers in the Southeast and Northeast to be pinched first, following the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast region.

Katrina forced operators to close more than a tenth of the country's refining capacity and a quarter of its oil production, which sent gasoline prices surging.

"With this kind of hiccup in refinery capacity, in stretched markets like California, you could see over $4 a gallon in gas," Evan Smith, an analyst at U.S. Global Investors, told CNN/Money.

While it's still too early to fully assess the damage caused by Katrina, efforts to build up inventories of crude oil, natural gas and other products like gasoline will be set back by the storm, according to Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight.

In a research note, Behravesh laid out a worst-case scenario that puts average prices for regular unleaded gasoline at about $3.50 a gallon for the next four to six months.

"The impact on consumer spending in such a scenario would be very dramatic, cutting the growth rate by as much as 3 percent and pushing real GDP growth in the fourth quarter closer to zero," he wrote.

In a best-case scenario, he forecast retail pump prices to peak at $3 a gallon for a couple of months, but then fall back to around $2.50 by year-end.

The nationwide average price for a gallon of regular unleaded hit a fresh high of $2.619 Wednesday, according to AAA, the largest U.S. motorist organization, formerly known as the American Automobile Association.

Average gasoline prices have gained 40 percent in the last year.

Prices for crude oil are also up sharply and are currently hovering near record highs just under $70 a barrel.

OC
08-31-2005, 03:41 PM
Has anyone else herd that the average net profit for each oil company over the last year is about 7 billion dollars a month average? If true I wonder if they have the balls to take a cut in profit to help this country out in what looks like some hard economic years ahead. After what has happened down south and the war we as a country may need to call some type of national emergency. If gas prices go to 4 dollars a gallon in a country that it's citizens depend not only on cars for transportation but for such long distance transportation costs to get vital supplies to folks we may end up with a really bad crash across the board.

I guess I should feel good that I put 300 pounds of potatos and 60 pounds of beets in the root cellar yesterday.

Moonlight
08-31-2005, 06:54 PM
Multi National Oil Companys are not very worried about the effects of the price of Gasoline on the likes of us. Exxon is still appealing the decision to make them pay for the lost fishing oppurtunities in Prince William Sound from the Big Spill! even though there share of the monthly profits would pay the cost and have that much leftover.
Yesterday I saw people filling "Jerry Jugs at several gas stations here in the Northwest, thats one way to get a short supply started and get the prices jacked up even faster.
I talked with a young couple here today that are heading down to New Orleans in a couple of weeks to help out with the recovery efforts. I suspect there will be lots of oppurtunities to help out other than helping the Multi National oil co's get even richer.

JimW
08-31-2005, 07:14 PM
With a 70 gallon tank on the boat it's rough, I've been filling it up after every trip just to save since it seems to bump up 10 cents between trips. I've learned to conserve fuel while making longer runs, using the tabs and tweaking the trim but depending on sea conditions sometimes it's the running and gunning or puting around that can use more gas than a long run. When I go out with someone they normally chip in for gas which helps. Unfortunately work has kept my fishing to a minimum this year and I have not been getting out for morning trips before work anyway.

Smcdermott
08-31-2005, 10:22 PM
Price went up $.10/gallon while I was pumping tonight. :whoa: I am planning on switching vehicles with my wife which will offset a little of the increase as I have a much longer drive and her car gets much better mileage. With only about 8 weeks left in the season I can't see it changing my boating too much. Maybe less willing to go search for fish and more staying put and waiting it out. Will certainly enlist the help of friends to try and get as much intel before launching as possible and hopefully a little help from my passengers with the gas bill.

Sean

Moonlight
09-01-2005, 01:15 AM
Watching the news after the baseball game this evening I see that Gasoline has already hit $6.00 in Atlanta and there are lines ready to pay the price! I doubt it will be predictable but it will certainly be volatile maybe even explosive.

bonefishmon
09-01-2005, 07:55 AM
Heard of a guy that added two 500 gal. heating oil tanks to his property. Filled them both six months ago when prices were lower. He drives a diesel and now fills up in the back yard!!!!!!! The car gets 50 mpg! Yup....runs on heating oil.

Phil

Chris
09-01-2005, 10:24 AM
just don't get caught running on fuel with the dye in it. That's tax evasion. Not that the commercial inspectors are likely to stop him it is risky just the same. When will our farmers get to live like oil barons for growing bio-diesel that's what I'd like to see?

JimW
09-01-2005, 11:17 AM
Phil,
Diesel and home heating oil are the same except for the color and the tax built into the diesel sold for use in motor vehicles. The guy with the 500 gallon tank should keep a low profile since what he is doing is not legal. I've got no problem with it, just thought you should know.

sean
09-01-2005, 01:14 PM
Hmm is that a local law in Mass??? Lots of folks in washington use alternative fuels and a lot of biodiesel that they get delivered to thier home in large quantities....

-sean

bonefishmon
09-02-2005, 04:05 AM
Phil,
Diesel and home heating oil are the same except for the color and the tax built into the diesel sold for use in motor vehicles. The guy with the 500 gallon tank should keep a low profile since what he is doing is not legal. I've got no problem with it, just thought you should know.

Such is true. It should also be illegal to raise the price at the pumps before the new truckload of higher priced fuel arrives at the gas stations!

Phil

RayStachelek
09-02-2005, 05:54 PM
God!....with over $300.00 (market price as of today @ $3.35) of gas in my boat right now, I'm afraid to let people know where I live.

Do they make a lock for plush mounted fillers? Necessity is the mother of all inventions.

Got the feeling there will be a lot of piracy going on in boatyards. Beware of the guy with a big hose or gas on his breath.

JimW
09-03-2005, 08:54 AM
I figure if I don't use the boat for fishing and keep the full tank I've got now it may be a better investment than anything in my current 401k portfolio :roll:

I'm not sure if the use of non-taxed fuel is limited to MA since there are federal taxes built into the pump prices. I really don't see the MA weights and measures spot checking non-commercial vehicles. If you can save a few bucks and beat the system more power to ya, I just wanted to make people aware of the risk.

flytyer
09-03-2005, 07:32 PM
I know that there are folks who are thinking a hybrid will help them out economically and that the hybrid are also better for the environment. However, it takes a lot of driving to pay for the difference from 25 mpg (which is lower than the EPA average fuel economy of all cars sold in the US) and 40-45 mpg (which is the EPA average fuel economy for the hybrids). Yes, that is 20 more miles you can drive on each gallon, but you have to figure in the price of the new vehicle compared to your old vehicle.

The average motorist in the US drives 14,000 miles in a year according to the insurance institute. This means that if he gets 25 mpg he will use 560 gallons in a year's driving it will cost him $2240.00 if gas is $4.00/gal. The hybrids getting 45 miles/gal average will use 312 gallons in a year's driving, and it will cost $1248.00 is gas is $4.00/gal. Therefore, the driver of the hybrid will have a net fuel savings of $992.00/ year over the driver of the average car that gets 25 mpg.

Sounds like a good savings so far; but we haven't figured in the cost of the hybrid compared to what the person is currently driving. The average new car in the US is either leased for 3 years or financed for 5 years. Say the fellow who is going to get rid of his car has been driving it for 3 years and it cost him the average price of a new car in the US, or $22,000.00 and he still has 2 years left on the loan (I'm going to ignore the interest that would be left on it and just say that he still owes $9100.00 on the loan). Now he gets a hybrid with a price of $27,000.00 and gets $13,000.00 on his trade-in. This means that he is financing $23,000.00 because the $9100.00 he still owes on his non-hybrid is paid off by the dealer, so that means only $4,000.00 of the $13,000 he received for his trade-in is available for the down payment on the hybrid.

The $23,000 he now owes will take 5750 gallons of gas at 45 mpg he gets with the hybrid at the price of $4.00/gallon. Since he is only driving 14,000 miles in a year, he is only going to use 312 gallon in a year's driving (14,0000 miles/45 mpg), which will cost him $1248.00, it is going to take him only 18.5 years of driving the hybrid the 14,0000 average miles per year with $4.00/gallon fuel to break even. Or another way of looking at it is: He will only have to drive 259,000 miles to break even (14,000 miles/yearx18.5years=259,000 miles). So if he can possible find a way to drive 51,800 miles each and every year of the 5 years he financed the hybrid for, he will break even. Quite savings isn't it?

This doesn't even take into consideration the cost of replacing the battery packs. The hybrid manufacturers claim the battery packs will last 100,000 miles, so the battery pack is going to have to be replaced at least one time and more likely twice in the 259,000 miles needed to break even. And it will cost several thousand dollars to replace the battery pack just once, and this amount will have to be added to the total needed to drive in order to break even, let alone save any money.

Additionally, we don't know how long the electric motors used in the hybrids will last either. They may not last 259,000 miles, which means there will be even more expense added to the cost if the electric motor doesn't make it to 259,000 miles before it needs to be replaced.

Also, if a person can't find way or a need to drive nearly 52,000 miles per each of the 5 years he has the hybrid, he will most likely have some rust repair or repainting needed in the 18.5 years he will keep the car to break even. And that cost is not included either.

Then there is the environmental problem of what to do with all those battery packs the hybrids use when they wear out. The battery packs are not exactly non-toxic or non-polluting and I highly doubt the car companies will pay to dispose of them.

In other words, what looks like a good way to save some money and help the environment on its surface, really isn't a very good way to save money unless you are going to either drive nearly 52,000 miles every year for 5 years, or keep the car and drive it for 18.5 years.

juro
09-03-2005, 09:02 PM
Interesting financial analysis on the current state of hybrid technology. However, the rate of evolution make these comparisons spectacular compared to a few years ago, and I am confident that in a few more years the comparisons would make us look back and wonder how we fared without hybrid technology.

Hopefully this will mark a swing of power from the good ol' boy oil barons to the technologists in the automotive sector and maybe even revitalize it.

If nothing else, it will dramatically reduce greenhouse gases and help preserve the environment, which is at the top of my list as an outdoorsman.

sean
09-03-2005, 09:26 PM
You can get a toyota prius for 21k and get 50mpg. Resale is very good. Do the same numbers with a car that gets the average 20mpg and they will have to drive it a lot longer to realize savings. Cars are not investments. They are money pits. Good thing about the hybrids is they have great resale value and are zero emissions.

That being said we can do better. Some guys have been tinkering with thier hybrids and are getting 150 - 200 mpg out of them. There is a trend now with the newer hybrids to use the technology to make fast cars like the new honda accord. Thus sacrifing what hybrid technology should be about. The hybrid thing is also really only a 25 year investment on the motor companys as hydrogen will take over one day but it will take a while to change out the exisiting fuel distribution system.

Days of driving v10s and hummer sized vehicles are numbered.

-sean

FrenchCreek
09-03-2005, 10:07 PM
Move to Canada.... :chuckle:
Calgary has the supposedly lowest price for gasoline and with some quick math, one US gal. cost $3.65USD. :Eyecrazy:
Now if you live in BC, the cost is closer to $4.00USD per US gallon. :eek:
Invest in Oil & Gas stocks - as an average, these stocks have gone up some 25% to 35% in the last 6 months, so move some of your 401K or other investments to have 30-45% of your portfolio in energy stocks. ;)
Reality remains that the current cost of gasoline, adjusted for inflation, is the same or lower (depending on the economic model used) than what it was 20 years ago, and by far less expensive than the bottled pop or water etc. However,I really feel for those on fixed incomes, or lower incomes. Inflation adjusted economics and other such rhetoric does little when it comes to paying the gas pump.
Maybe some of our UK brothers have a few commenst here.... since they have been at these levels for years.
No solace for me and my fishing habits, we are doing much of the same as what Mark has said, being more aware of the fuel consumption is critical and of other energy consumption (natural gas, electricity, etc) as well.
For the guides, professional, part-time or just good buddies who take out other buddies, and for you who may use these services, here is some more reality. As a part-time guide I pay for the fuel in my guzzler Tahoe while it is shuttled, the driving to pick up clients and drop them off and the travel to the put in points, I'm sure the same is true for your local guides, yet the posted price of a guided trip and the pay we get as guides remained the same. If gets worse when I use the power boat instead of the drift boat. My rowing only takes inches off my gut, not out of my wallet! Thank you to the good clients for recognizing the cost of travel and helping out with appropriate tips.
I consider myself very fortunate if not privileged, that even the dramatic gas price increases will have only a small impact on my fishing-hunting and travel habits, at least for this year!

flytyer
09-04-2005, 06:24 PM
Juro,

What about all the very toxic battery packs from the hybrids that are going to need to be disposed of? They are not envonmentally friendly by any means.

Sean,

Absolutely, cars are not investments, despite what a lot of car salesmen, marketers, and financing institutions have tried to convince us of.

I have 2 vehicles, a 1989 Jeep Cherokee with the 4.0L and a 5-speed, it gets 22 MPG and had been mine outright since I got it 7 years ago (I paid $4100 for it). The other vehicle of mine is a 1987 3/4 ton Dodge 4x4 pickup with a 5.9 L engine and an automatic trans, I paid cash for it too and it gets 14 mpg. Since both of these have excellent bodies and interiors along with excellent engines and transmissions, they are going to go many more miles. This means that other than normal maintenance (oil changes, brakes, filters, plugs, tires that all vehicles need), it is only going to cost me fuel to drie them. I'd have to drive huge numbers of miles with each of them for years to break even with a hybrid as a result. I'm sure I'm not the only one driving vehicles that are paid for.

Hydrogen is attractive because all you get is water vapor from burning it. However, there is the problem of producing pure hydrogen. The most common method use either electricity to crack more complex atoms to get the pure hydrogen or the use of super heated steam to crack them and get the hydrogen to release. Interesting thing about it is the amount of energy needed to get the hydrogen to release (and thus get hydrogen for fuel) far exceeds that which you get back from the hydrogen. You only get about 30% of the energy back from the hydrogen that it took to get it in the first place, a hardly effecient use of energy.

And since the electricity or steam needed to get the hydrogen to release from the more complex atoms or even H2O is considerable and except for hydropower (which has its own detrimental effects on fish), wind generators (again with their own problems effecting wildlife and fish), or photovoltaic (which requires sunlight to work and then only produces low amounts of current) our electrical power is produced by ways that most don't consider to be environmentally friendly (coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear), this means that not only do you only get 30% of the energy back from the hydrogen it took to produce it, you are causing more pollution to produce the electric power needed to produce hydrogen.

You then have the extreme flammability of hydrogen and the need to compress it to liquid state to store it in useful amounts, whether in a vehicle or a refueling station. Imagine the fire potential if the hydrogen fuel tank on a vehicle gets punctured in a crash. In other words, our current level of technology needs a lot of development before hydrogen is viable and as safe as gasoline or diesel for use in vehicles.

Folks, don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the probems with the amount of energy needed to produce hydrogen compared to the energy you get back when it is burned and the storage and safety problems resolved, I don't think this will happen for a few decades if not longer.