01-08-2004, 02:19 PM
Just so you know that the thaw is real, there are about 15 male Red Wing Blackbirds hanging around my pond calling for territory and mates. Every year this event gets earlier but it seems like only yesterday we were involved in the icy grip of winter. (Actually it was the day before yesterday). It certainly looks and sounds like Spring out there today. So far it looks like we might get by with a little high water as opposed to epic floods due to heavy rains and snow melt. I will keep my fingers crossed but it sounds promising.
01-08-2004, 04:51 PM
We have about 15 inches of snow and another 5-6 to arrive tonight. No Blackbirds in sight. We have not had this much snow in years. I guess we are just in a cold backwater.
01-08-2004, 08:09 PM
Here's a link to the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the foremost global organization of Earth scientists, and what they think about it:
If global warming hadn't started 10 to 15 thousand years ago, essentially all of Europe and most of N. America would still be covered by glaciers, Neanderthals would still rule Europe, and homo spiens would still be landlocked in Africa! Just what was man's "big role" in starting that event (which still continues today)?:hehe:
01-10-2004, 07:47 AM
I think (that means an opinion) that mans effect on Global Warming while probably real is is like a flea bite on a cancer patient.
There are fossil records in the ice of the Polar Caps that show cyclical Ice Age Events occuring routinely on 10,000 yera cycles. There is a really elegant theory dealing with the distribution of fluid freshwater in the Northern Hemisphere that is very hopeful to me as it will eventually remove all traces of the Dams on the Columbia, and all other man made structures in the Northern tier of states and provinces.(call it Urban renewall on steroids)
The ultimate challenge for the Corps of Engineers will be to stop the cessation of the Atlantic Conveyor and the Gulf Stream, good luck!
01-10-2004, 11:09 AM
you asked for it...
01-10-2004, 12:31 PM
this is a theory, it is not a fact or proven. The world is an incrediblely complex system and we are a long way away from modeling or predicting, something much simpler, like weather. Even with sattelite photos and radar, we don't get it completely right - as evidenced in the last week or so and the weather forcasts.
01-10-2004, 02:31 PM
Ok let me be the first to say that thinking man has no role in global warming is like saying that logging has nothing to do with stream siltation. Or that harvest has no impact on the health of runs. These arguments reminds me of manifest destiny, a bunch of self serving rationalization crap. Ah hell, its all ocean conditions anyways so lets just all get out there and kill them while we can before nature makes them extinct.
Just my opinion of course but last I checked Ashcroft and GW had yet to repeal that right. :devil:
01-10-2004, 02:40 PM
My last post on this thread:
Virtually all Earth scientists (high 95%+) and the scientific organizations who represent them agree that human activities are influencing Earth's climate. Quite simply, there is broad scientific consensus on the issue.
Some industrialists and politicians choose to emphasize the vast minority of scientists on this issue because it suits their own agendas. Not coincidentally, many of the minority scientists have research programs that are funded by fossil fuel industry.
As a practicing PhD research scientist who works on issues related to climate change and their effects on ecosystems, I understand that interactions between climate and ecosystems are changing all the time. That's not the issue.
I also understand as a human being that many people don't want to believe that there is a connection between human activities and climate change because of a perceived threat to their standard of living or way of life. That's more towards the issue.
Removing dams to save Columbia salmon is analagous. Pretty much every independent scientist agrees that dam removal is necessary, except perhaps those working for BPA, who will bend over backwards to point out other causes of decline in salmon numbers, and to pass the buck, while fish teeter on the brink of extinction.
Those with an alternative agenda will never be convinced on the issue of climate change, and will forever remain in the 1-2% of dissenters, because the science of climate change is complex and in many cases there is no single silver bullet on the issue. However, due to the scope of the problem, that's a necessary condition of the issue - and we do our best to reason cause from effect.
The experts are clear on this one, but it makes good press to emphasize complexity and uncertainty - and good politics, too.
01-11-2004, 02:42 AM
I was just glad to finally have some time off to swing a fly with the long rod today. After the big freeze, this warming trend is welcome. Too bad the river was on its way up by the time I got there. If nothing else, I had a good time practicing and perfecting my snake roll with a Type 6 tip.